Saturday 2 May 2015

The Other Off Season Game Plan - Oilers Edition

Big disclaimer - I know very little about hockey as compared to Scott Cullen, residential fanatic analytic expert (read; stats geek) over at TSN. But I do have an armchair and computer and also like to sit in front of it from time to time and think about our great game of hockey. So when I read that Scott is pulling together his personal game plan for each team in the NHL, I thought I would do the same, only not get paid for it.

But to do what Scott does it would mean I have some idea of what Scott is saying and either agree or disagree with him. I don't know any of these new stats that is all the talk this year. To me a Corsi will always be that type of dog the Queen has or a small moped. Nor do I know anything about the Oilers farm team or for that matter, anything about the team's morale. I'm just an outsider looking in, kinda like an unwanted therapist or that drunk guy sitting alone at the bar who wants to join your conversation but you don't want to appear rude.

So let's start with his first team to suffer the wrath of the new rage of analytic analysis for anal analytics; The Edmonton Oilers.



The Lottery

In case you've been living in a non-hockey vacuum, the Oilers were the recipient of the Connor McDavid sweepstakes. A kid so good there was legitimate talk of teams deliberately losing in order to have a better chance at the kid. It was embarrassing as shit with daily posting of TSN's percentage board in the final month of the season and fans in Buffalo and Toronto notoriously (and playfully) cheering on each home loss. It was like team management wanted their teams to lose. How else do you explain Toronto and Edmonton holding onto 'interim head coaches' since before Christmas? It reminded me of the classic Charlie Sheen movie, Major League.

And while everyone in hockeyland believed he was heading a couple hours down the road to be the McJesues of Buffalo, it turns out the hockey gods love a good joke more than Gary Bettman and once again have decided to ship out a promising young talent to the northern hinterland of Edmonton.

Barring a great trade near draft day McDavid will be joining former #1 draft picks Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov and The Nuge in the City that Once Was Champions.

He's going to fit right in...
The other surprise of this Spring for the Oilers that as soon as Peter Chiarelli was fired by the Bruins he was on a plane to Edmonton. He accepted the Oilers offer as soon as he cleared customs to become their Director of Hockey Operations, replacing the two headed monster of Kevin Lowe and Craig McTavish,

The DHO is becoming a new status symbol of sorts in the NHL, after the hiring of high profile former players Joe Sakic, Trevor Linden and Brendan Shanahan in Colorado, Vancouver and Toronto respectively. This once vague position sounds like the most powerful position on a sports team, higher than a general manager but lower than owner... so more like a 2 star general manager.

So where to start?

#1 Head Coach

No. Jon.
Given this amazing talent pool of offence and egos in waiting, they need a coach that is used to both. For me Todd McClellan becomes an obvious pick. I'll add three more to the mix - Adam Oates is offense-oriented, worked quietly with Brett Hull and Ovie and despite having a winning season in Washington his one and done departure is somewhat strange. Marc Crawford might want another kick at the can. The other coach probably ready for a promotion is Detroit's farm team coach Jeff Blashill - also used to dealing with young talent and past-their-prime veterans.

While I hear Edmonton fans are masturbating to the idea of Mike Babcock coming to town, I don't think he's going to want to be dealing with a team where half of them will get carded if they go to a pub or high school library.

Oilers First Day of Training Camp 
#2 Forwards  

With McDavid they will have 5 first liners, all under 25. One or two is trade bait. My picks - Hall and Yapukov. Yaps has under-produced but still young enough to attract some attention. My second pick would be Hall as looks to be apparent, the Oilers are going to become McDavid's team and I don't know if this day and age a Messier/Gretzky leadership combo could work. Hall would have to drop to the 2nd line and ...well...ego. I think the Nuge will flourish with McDavid so naturally, the Oilers will probably trade him first.

Reaction to being asked if Messier would have made a better captain.
They obviously need veterans. Winning ones. One strong punishing line to keep the opposition in check. Upcoming free agents Soderberg, Belesky would be nice, affordable fits. Patrick Sharp may be available due to the Hawks tight cap situation. Whoever it is, they are going to be hired more for their experience than their price tag.

Patented Oilers Defensive coverage
#3 Defence 

Justin Schultz was a bust, considering the hoopla around his signing. Andrew Ference was the embattled captain for much of the year but he's getting old. Simply put, the Oilers have nobody of note on the blue line and they desperately need it - veterans who know how to move the puck to the opponents net and move bodies away from their own net. There is a few talented ones coming up but the Oilers don't need offensive defencemen - just someone who can pass it to a forward. Dion Phaneuf makes for great trade bait, he's used to Alberta's wonderful climate and deserves to get out of Toronto. Johnny Oduya is expected to suffer the fate of not fitting into Chicago's cap structure and for that he could be this year's Nick Leddy.

Two contenders battling not to play in Edmonton a couple years ago
#4 Goalies 

I say keep'm both. It's unfair to blame all of the Oiler woes on the goalie - give'm a second chance with a healthy Victor Fasth and an apology to rested Ben Scrivens. If you can't do that, try for Niemi. But by god, they need some defencemen to give them confidence that a rebound will be cleared once in awhile or someone will hang out in front of the net with them.
Let'm know young Billy is waiting
Summary

The Oilers have no excuses not to do well this year - much like every year for the past five. If they have that strong foundation of veterans that can push the young kids back into their winning ways that made them draft picks they have a chance at making the playoffs. The Colorado Avalanche managed to do it with the arrival of Patrick Roy as head coach. As such, a lot depends on who the Oilers coach will be.

Ogie's Oilers

My #1 Priority - Head Coach
My #2 Priority - Veteran, winning, tough defencemen. See; Johnny Oduya.
My #3 Priority - Connor McDavid doesn't get hurt in a freak bagpipe cleaning accident.


***UPDATE*** Todd McClennan was caught unawares by Peter Charelli after getting off the Team Canada plane in Toronto after their gold medal win at the worlds. 3 hours later, he learned via TSN the autograph he believed he signed was actually a head coach contract for the Oilers. Hall/Eberle were seen giggling behind him.




   





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